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A Shocking Energy Prediction and What to Do About It Right Now

By Frank Curzio, editor, Small Stock Specialist
Friday, October 4, 2013

"Within 20 years, we will no longer need to import oil from overseas."
Last month, I spoke with Dr. Kent Moors on my S&A Investor Radio podcast. We talked about an idea I've been following for years...
New technologies – like fracking and horizontal drilling – have allowed the U.S. to tap into incredible oil and gas reserves. My research team and I have gotten a close look at these technologies over the last 12 months in the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and the Bakken Shale.
This has led to a huge oil boom in America. In 2011, the U.S. was producing 5.5 million barrels of oil per day. Today, it's producing 7.5 million barrels per day. That's a 36% increase in oil production in just two years. And it's the most oil America has produced in 25 years.
Despite this massive boom, the U.S. isn't even close to producing enough oil to meet current demand. But Dr. Moors argues we will be soon... And even if he's half right, a few key players are going to reap enormous rewards.
Americans consume about 18.5 million barrels of oil per day. To reach energy independence, we'd have to increase production by 11 million barrels of oil per day.
That's why Dr. Moors' prediction – that in 20 years, the U.S. will no longer need to import oil from overseas – was so shocking.
Dr. Moors is one of the smartest oil analysts in the field. He's a consultant to the world's largest energy companies. And he's basing his call on the latest planning document from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
OPEC is an oil cartel made up of mostly Middle East countries, and its purpose is to coordinate oil policy. The document projects that not a single member of OPEC will be exporting oil to America a few decades from now.
In other words, the largest oil-producing nations believe America will be energy independent in the not-so-distant future.
For the U.S. to become energy independent, it would likely have to open up more shale areas in New York, California, and Florida. It would also have to drill for oil in the Three Forks (under the Bakken shale), the Cline (in the Permian Basin), and the Utica (located under the Marcellus shale).
Dr. Moors also suggests that the U.S. will import about 30% of its oil from Canada. That means the U.S. will need to produce about 13 million barrels of oil per day to meet current demand – 5.5 million barrels more than current production levels.
I'm not sure we'll get there in 20 years. But if the U.S. opens up more shale areas and starts importing fewer barrels of oil from overseas, many companies will be huge beneficiaries...
I suggest buying some of the largest shale oil producers, like Continental Resources (CLR) and Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD). These companies drill in the Bakken, Permian Basin, and Eagle Ford – and their oil production numbers are already skyrocketing.
Oil-service firms – like Schlumberger (SLB), Baker Hughes (BHI), Weatherford (WFT), and Halliburton (HAL) – will also be winners. These companies sell drilling equipment and services to energy giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron.
My favorite pick is Halliburton – which I believe will be bought by General Electric over the next 12 months.
As America pushes to become energy independent, these companies will likely put money in investors' pockets.
Good investing,
Frank Curzio

Further Reading:

Last year, Porter Stansberry put together a two-part series on America's rise to energy dominance. He calls it "the most important economic event of our lifetimes." In short, America is on its way to becoming the world's largest energy producer and exporter. Learn more here and here.
"According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, domestic crude oil production will hit 7.8 million barrels per day by 2014," Matt Badiali writes. "It represents an astonishing 56% increase from the recent low of 5 million barrels per day in 2008." Get all the details on America's huge increase in oil production – and the chart energy investors have to see – right here.

In The Daily Crux
Market Notes
Casino and gambling fund BJK jumps to a new all-time high.
U.S. dollar index breaks down to a seven-month low... the dollar is the worst-performing major currency over the past three months.
Shale oil boom sends shares of Pioneer and Energen up 50%-plus in six months.
Utility sector downtrend continues... utility companies Southern and ConEd sink 10%-plus since May.
Market Watch
Symbol Price
S&P 500 1678.66 -0.9% +15.7%
Oil (USO) 37.14 -0.8% +13.9%
Gold (GLD) 127.18 +0.1% -26.2%
Silver (SLV) 20.92 +0.0% -37.6%
U.S. Dollar 79.77 -0.2% -0.2%
Euro 1.36 +0.2% +5.4%
Volatility (^VIX) 17.67 +6.5% +14.5%
Gold Stocks (^HUI) 222.67 -1.2% -55.9%
10-Year Yield 2.61 -0.8% +61.1%

World ETFs
Symbol Price
Japan (EWJ) 11.72 -0.8% +31.3%
Israel (ISL) 15.54 -1.0% +22.2%
USA (SPY) 167.62 -0.9% +18.1%
China (FXI) 37.51 -0.2% +10.6%
Taiwan (EWT) 14.40 +1.8% +8.9%
S. Korea (EWY) 62.36 -0.2% +5.8%
Singapore (EWS) 13.29 -1.0% +1.3%
Canada (EWC) 28.17 -0.7% +0.1%
S. Africa (EZA) 63.89 -0.6% +0.0%
Russia (TRF) 14.76 -0.2% -3.2%
Lat.America (ILF) 38.62 -1.2% -6.5%
India (IFN) 19.53 +1.3% -7.1%

Sector ETFs
Symbol Price
Alt. Energy (PBW) 6.48 +0.0% +61.3%
Biotech (PBE) 35.45 -1.1% +44.5%
Media (PBS) 23.32 -1.8% +40.0%
Defense (PPA) 27.19 -1.1% +38.5%
Retail (PMR) 33.39 -1.1% +34.7%
Transportation (IYT) 117.54 -1.0% +34.4%
Industrials (IYJ) 90.01 -1.1% +28.7%
Consumer Svcs (IYC) 109.89 -0.9% +27.9%
Construction (PKB) 20.32 -1.3% +26.7%
Health Care (IYH) 107.24 -0.9% +26.2%
Financials (IYF) 73.20 -0.9% +25.6%
Semis (PSI) 17.12 -1.3% +25.6%
Water (PHO) 23.71 -1.0% +21.7%
Software (PSJ) 32.92 -1.1% +18.3%
Insurance (PIC) 19.01 +0.1% +18.3%
Big Tech (QQQQ) 78.71 -1.2% +15.5%
Basic Mat (IYM) 73.90 -0.7% +12.3%
Telecom (IYZ) 27.62 -0.9% +12.0%
Nanotech (PXN) 6.90 -0.8% +10.2%
Utilities (XLU) 37.08 -1.2% +5.4%
Real Estate (IYR) 63.80 -1.5% +2.7%

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