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My New Year's Resolution

By Jeff Clark
Thursday, January 6, 2011

There's not much point to making New Year's resolutions prior to Super Bowl Sunday.
Think about it… Super Bowl Sunday is a day for beer, tortilla chips and seven-layer dip, cigars, and yelling obscenities when your team makes a stupid play. Who wants to go on a diet, give up drinking, stop smoking, and cut out the foul language prior to that annual celebration of bad habits?
It just doesn't make sense. So I always wait until after the Super Bowl before getting to work on my resolutions. And it usually works out better.
Last year I resolved to try to be more open to the bullish side of the stock market. My natural inclination is to lean bearish. I don't trust the stock market. I suspect there's way too much manipulation going on. And it would be a nice change of pace to put on some of those rose-colored glasses everyone else is wearing and look at the market through bullish eyes.
But I couldn't do it last January. I looked at the market and this is what I saw…
This is a 60-minute chart of the S&P 500. It displays a long-term bearish rising wedge pattern with negative divergence on the MACD momentum indicator. It's a bearish chart pattern and almost always ends with a significant decline. I wrote about it a few times as it was developing, most notably here.
There was nothing bullish to see here. So I put off starting on my bullish New Year's resolution, just like I put off all the others, until after the Super Bowl.
Here's how the S&P 500 looked on Super Bowl Sunday…
Just as it was easier to start a diet once the gluttony of football season ended, it was far easier to stick with my bullish resolution once the bearish pattern of the rising wedge had played out.
And now, as we enter 2011, I'm once again finding myself wanting to try to be bullish. Let's face it… I've been cautious lately. I'm worried about risk. I suspect there's even more manipulation happening. I wish I could put on those rose-colored glasses everyone else is wearing.
But when I look at the market this is what I see…
Maybe I'll wait until after the Super Bowl to make this year's bullish resolution.
Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark

Further Reading:

Jeff may be bearish, but he's got an idea on how to capitalize off Americans' weight loss resolutions. "Yes, weight loss is a big deal this time of year," he writes. "And it's big business for weight loss companies." Learn what companies Jeff's recommending here: The 2011 Weight Loss Trade.
Despite magazine covers suggesting investors dive back into stocks, Dan Ferris remains bullish. And though he warns readers to "hold a large chunk of cash in your account," he doesn't recommend getting out of the stock market altogether. While his advice may not be exciting, it's "better than losing a big chunk of money in a dangerous market." Read more here: A 2011 Investment Forecast Unlike Any Other You've Read.

In The Daily Crux
Market Notes
Euro troubles not over… National Bank of Greece plummets to new 52-week low.

Ag boom going strong… Potash and Syngenta jump to new two-year highs.
Telecom giants AT&T and Verizon hit fresh highs.
Triquint Semiconductor already up 15% in 2011
Market Watch
Symbol Price
S&P 500 1276.56 +0.5% +12.3%
Oil (USO) 38.52 +1.2% -4.7%
Gold (GLD) 134.37 -0.3% +22.5%
Silver (SLV) 28.61 -1.6% +63.4%
U.S. Dollar 79.44 +0.3% +2.3%
Euro 1.31 -1.2% -8.5%
Volatility (^VIX) 17.02 -2.1% -12.0%
Gold Stocks (^HUI) 544.66 -1.3% +21.2%
10-Year Yield 3.48 +3.9% -7.5%

World ETFs
Symbol Price
USA (SPY) 127.64 +0.5% +12.3%
Canada (EWC) 30.98 +0.2% +14.4%
Russia (TRF) 24.14 +1.1% +21.9%
India (IFN) 34.69 -0.5% +9.8%
Israel (ISL) 17.85 +1.7% +9.7%
Japan (EWJ) 10.94 -0.7% +8.9%
Singapore (EWS) 13.96 +0.2% +17.9%
Taiwan (EWT) 15.35 -1.7% +15.5%
S. Korea (EWY) 61.94 +0.0% +25.5%
S. Africa (EZA) 73.43 -1.0% +25.7%
China (FXI) 44.32 +0.1% +0.7%
Lat.America (ILF) 54.19 +0.2% +9.6%

Sector ETFs
Symbol Price
Oil Service (OIH) 139.46 +1.5% +10.5%
Big Pharma (PPH) 66.01 +0.1% -0.7%
Internet (HHH) 74.76 +1.3% +27.2%
Semis (PSI) 16.53 +0.6% +20.5%
Utilities (XLU) 31.44 -0.6% +2.4%
Defense (PPA) 19.01 +0.9% +9.3%
Nanotech (PXN) 9.94 +0.7% -7.5%
Alt. Energy (PBW) 10.68 +0.6% -7.0%
Water (PHO) 18.98 +0.1% +10.3%
Insurance (PIC) 16.57 -0.1% +19.6%
Biotech (PBE) 21.64 +0.7% +28.4%
Retail (PMR) 19.11 -0.5% +19.0%
Software (PSJ) 25.18 +0.7% +18.3%
Big Tech (QQQQ) 55.74 +0.9% +20.1%
Construction (PKB) 13.08 +1.2% +7.1%
Media (PBS) 14.29 +1.5% +19.2%
Consumer Svcs (IYC) 68.42 +0.6% +22.1%
Financials (IYF) 59.04 +1.1% +11.0%
Health Care (IYH) 66.35 +0.2% +3.2%
Industrials (IYJ) 66.09 +0.6% +22.1%
Basic Mat (IYM) 77.88 +0.3% +24.8%
Real Estate (IYR) 56.05 +0.4% +22.1%
Transportation (IYT) 93.18 +0.5% +24.4%
Telecom (IYZ) 23.94 +0.9% +15.8%

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