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Keep Your Money in Your Pocket

By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, April 6, 2010

The amazing stock market melt-up of 2009-2010 continues.
 
In a move that has even the Las Vegas bookies scratching their heads, the S&P 500 rose again yesterday. That makes it 27 out of the past 31 Mondays that stocks have closed in the green.
 
This is even more remarkable: The S&P has now gone 38 trading days without experiencing so much as a 1% pullback. That's a measly 12-point decline from one day's highest point.
 
Mr. Market has indeed become the hot shooter at the craps table. The crowd around the table is growing larger and louder. Every roll of the dice is accompanied by a boisterous cheer, and Mr. Market's winning streak continues. Even folks outside of the casino are tempted to come in and join the party.
 
Of course, we all know winning streaks come to an end, and every hot shooter eventually craps out – usually after covering all the numbers and when there's the most money to lose. For now, though, that's an inconvenient truth. It's more fun and – for the time being – more profitable to believe the stock market is a one-way bet and we're all smart enough to cash in our chips before reality strikes.
 
It's also fun to believe deep-fried chocolate bars and bacon-wrapped sausages are good for you.
 
I'm not trying to make a bearish argument here. That's not necessary. After all, there aren't too many people who actually believe it's a good thing to have government continue to spend far more than it receives in an effort to pump up the economy (last month's estimated deficit is $300 billion). Most people can see through the rainbow-laced economic headlines and determine today's growth is being bought and paid for with tomorrow's tax dollars.
 
We can all spot the storm clouds in the skies above us.
 
Most people, though, think they'll be quick enough to find shelter on high ground once the rains begin and the flooding starts.
 
That's what most people thought in 1987. It's what most people thought in 2000. But most people got soaked back then.
 
It looks like history is getting ready to repeat.
 
If you've been hanging out at the craps table behind Mr. Market, congratulations. It's been an amazing, odds-busting run. At this point, however, it makes sense to cash in a few chips and maybe even make a small wager against the hot shooter.
 
On the other hand, if you've avoided going into the casino up to this point, don't let the incessant cheering coax you inside. Buying stocks now is similar to buying stocks in August 1987, or in January 2000.
 
Keep your money in your pocket.
 
Best regards and good trading,
 
Jeff Clark




In The Daily Crux
Market Notes
Sharp rebound for natty... fuel surges 10% from last Wednesday's bottom.
 
10-year rates on the move... yield touches 4% for first time since last June.
 
Rally continues for heavy equipment... Caterpillar, Cummins, Dover, and PACCAR hit fresh highs.
 
New highs for Big Garbage firms Republic Services and Waste Management.
Market Watch
Symbol Price
Change
52-Wk
S&P 500 1223.75 +0.1% +10.9%
Oil 37.80 -1.1% +0.8%
Gold 136.50 -1.9% +20.7%
Silver 28.08 -4.9% +57.6%
US-Dollar 79.65 +0.6% +5.2%
Euro 1.33 -0.3% -10.5%
Volatility 17.99 -0.2% -18.6%
Gold Stocks 576.48 -2.5% +25.0%
10-Year Yield 3.16 +7.5% -8.4%

World ETFs
Symbol Price
Change
52-Wk
USA 122.83 +0.1% +10.8%
Canada 30.41 -0.5% +17.1%
Russia 22.00 +0.1% +18.9%
India 38.15 +0.6% +22.5%
Israel 16.92 +1.0% +11.2%
Japan 10.56 -1.2% +6.6%
Singapore 13.66 -0.4% +18.6%
Taiwan 14.87 -0.3% +19.0%
S. Korea 57.35 +0.3% +21.8%
S. Africa 71.15 -1.5% +28.2%
China 43.99 +0.3% -1.5%
Lat.America 52.69 -1.0% +8.5%

Sector ETFs
Symbol Price
Change
52-Wk
Oil Service 134.90 -2.1% +18.0%
Big Pharma 64.04 +0.1% -2.8%
Internet 72.89 +0.4% +27.4%
Semis 16.25 +0.4% +26.6%
Utilities 30.98 -0.7% +0.2%
Defense 18.55 +0.4% +8.7%
Nanotech 10.16 +0.8% +1.6%
Alt. Energy 10.20 -0.4% -4.6%
Water 18.77 +0.8% +14.5%
Insurance 16.14 +0.4% +19.6%
Biotech 20.65 +0.4% +27.3%
Retail 19.65 +0.3% +27.0%
Software 24.83 +0.7% +24.3%
Big Tech 53.88 +0.1% +22.7%
Construction 13.30 +0.8% +16.2%
Media 13.75 +0.2% +23.7%
Consumer Svcs 67.43 +0.1% +23.1%
Financials 54.95 -0.1% +7.0%
Health Care 63.89 0.0% +1.3%
Industrials 63.79 +0.4% +19.8%
Basic Mat 74.54 -0.1% +27.5%
Real Estate 55.53 +0.3% +24.4%
Transportation 91.65 +0.3% +25.1%
Telecom 22.69 +0.2% +14.6%

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